A new Quinnipiac University national poll released this week revealed that two-thirds of Republicans want former President Donald Trump to run for president in 2024.
The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,316 U.S. adults nationwide from May 18-24. The poll’s margin of error was +/- 2.7 percentage points.
Three key Republican findings of the survey included:
- 66% of Republicans want to see Trump run in 2024
- 66% of Republicans do not think Biden’s victory was legitimate
- 85% of Republicans want candidates that mostly agree with Trump
“The numbers fly in the face of any predictions that Donald Trump’s political future is in decline. By a substantial majority, Republicans: (1) believe the election was stolen from him, (2) want Trump to run again, and (3), if they can’t vote for Trump, prefer someone who agrees with him,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Malloy is right. The poll reveals what many American already know — Trump still serves as a top conservative leader.
But is Trump still up for another run? And if he does, can he win?
The first question looks like a yes. Trump recently told radio host Dan Bongino people will be very happy with his answer. However, Trump has also previously said he would not announce whether he is running until after the 2022 midterm elections.
The more important question is can he win? If two-thirds of Republicans already support Trump, how many more will be required, especially in key battleground states, to reach the needed electoral votes?
A handful of states will make the difference, similar to the 2020 election. For example, Arizona narrowly went to Biden, though many hoped Trump would win the state, with an audit still in process months later.
Pennsylvania also remains a key state. The Liberty State’s votes tipped toward Trump in the last election, but included much controversy regarding alleged fraud. Even if true, it may not have been enough to change the final result, as Biden won by a large number of votes statewide.
Then there’s Georgia. The state of Woke Coke and CNN pushed hard for a Biden victory in the traditionally conservative state. But a “#suitcasegate” scandal in Fulton County led to a recount and conservatives are still mad over the mysterious events that took place.
These three states and a few others are the key players for whether Trump will win in 2024. No matter how much conservative America wants Trump back, what matters is whether the electoral votes add up.
This is where political strategy enters the picture. Even 40 months out, conservatives are working on a combination of voter reform laws, midterm candidates, and even some Trump rallies to prepare the way.
This summer, expect Trump to show up with big crowds in key states, likely supporting midterm elections for Republicans to take back the House and maybe even the Senate.
Any visit to North Carolina will also likely include a discussion of whether Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, will run for the Tar Heel State’s U.S. Senate seat in 2022.
Overall, the momentum is building, but Trump won’t go for it unless he sees a path to victory. Otherwise, he’ll like support a fellow Trump leader, serving outside of an elected office to continue leading the future of the conservative movement.